price ÷ M2 trend + excess CAPE yield · five bands, one signalloading…
S&P 500
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Price ÷ M2 vs trend
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Excess CAPE yield
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Signal (blended)
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S&P 500 ÷ M2 money supply
How expensive stocks are in units of money supply. The dashed line is the fitted long-run trend; bands are ±0.5σ and ±1.5σ of the historical deviation from it, computed from the data itself.
Where price ÷ M2 sits today (standard deviations from trend)
−2.5σ−1.5σ−0.5σ+0.5σ+1.5σ+2.5σ
Band levels on any date
Pick a date — past or future — to see what S&P 500 level each band sits at. The dotted marker on the chart shows the chosen date.