Gold Valuation

price ÷ M2 trend  ·  five bands, one signal loading…
Gold (USD/oz)
—
Gold ÷ M2 vs trend
—
Trend value
—
gold price at the fitted trend today
Signal
—
Gold ÷ M2 money supply
How expensive gold is in units of money supply, since the end of the gold peg. The dashed line is the fitted long-run trend; bands are ±0.5σ and ±1.5σ of the historical deviation from it, computed from the data itself.
Where gold ÷ M2 sits today (standard deviations from trend)
−2.5σ−1.5σ−0.5σ+0.5σ+1.5σ+2.5σ
Band levels on any date
Pick a date — past or future — to see what gold price each band sits at. The dotted marker on the chart shows the chosen date.